Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · West Ham United vs Derby County
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 53%
A 26% away win. The market says 12%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United53%69%−16
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Derby County26%12%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 88% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 31% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 85% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 1 · v Wolverhampton (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Southampton (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Burnley (A)2-2
Derby County
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 1 · at Portsmouth (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Lincoln City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.