Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · West Ham United vs Everton
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United38%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Everton35%31%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 57% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Apr 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Apr 10 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Apr 5 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
Everton
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 19 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Mar 14 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.