Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 · West Ham United vs Fulham
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 35%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United49%35%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Fulham28%37%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 65% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 49% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Dec 20 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Dec 7 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
Fulham
LossLossWinLossWin
- Dec 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-0
- Dec 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · at Burnley (A)3-2
- Dec 7 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · v Manchester City (H)4-5
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.