EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:45 · West Ham United vs Fulham
Likeliest: Fulham win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United28%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Fulham44%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Wrexham (H)6-0
- Sep 8 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Derby County (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · v Wolverhampton (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Watford (A)1-1
Fulham
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.