FA Cup (England) · Sun, Apr 5 · 15:30 · West Ham United vs Leeds United
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 39%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United39%37%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Leeds United37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 51% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 22 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- Mar 4 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Liverpool (A)2-5
- Feb 21 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
Leeds United
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Mar 21 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-8-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.