Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · West Ham United vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 25%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United35%51%−16
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Leeds United40%25%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 75% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 49% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 67% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- May 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Everton (H)2-1
- Apr 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
Leeds United
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- May 17 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Chelsea (A)0-1
- Apr 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-8-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.