Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 30 · 14:05 · West Ham United vs Liverpool
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 19%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United38%19%+19
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Liverpool38%59%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 41% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 81% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 25% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Nov 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Burnley (H)3-2
- Nov 2 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Oct 24 · at Leeds United (A)1-2
- Oct 20 · v Brentford (H)0-2
Liverpool
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 26 · v PSV (H)1-4
- Nov 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-3
- Nov 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Nov 7 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.