Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 20:00 · West Ham United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 43%
A 33% home win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United33%21%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+1
OursMarket
Manchester City43%57%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 43% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 27% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 4 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Liverpool (A)2-5
- Feb 21 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
- Feb 14 · at Burton Albion (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
Manchester City
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Mar 11 · at Real Madrid (A)0-3
- Mar 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-1
- Mar 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Leeds United (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Ham United form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record