Premier League (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 20:15 · West Ham United vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 41%
A 35% home win. The market says 22%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United35%22%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+2
OursMarket
Manchester United41%55%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 78% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 29% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 7 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Chelsea (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Sunderland (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
Manchester United
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Arsenal (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · v Manchester City (H)2-0
- Jan 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Ham United form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record