EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · West Ham United vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 38%
A 36% away win. The market says 16%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United38%63%−25
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+6
OursMarket
Portsmouth36%16%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 61% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 56% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 84% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 37% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 79% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinLossLossLossWin
- May 24 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Everton (H)2-1
Portsmouth
WinWinLossWinDraw
- May 2 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 21 · at Coventry City (A)1-5
- Apr 18 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.