FA Cup (England) · Sun, Jan 11 · 14:30 · West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 19%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United37%58%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers39%19%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 81% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 42% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 75% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Jan 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-3
- Dec 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Dec 27 · v Fulham (H)0-1
- Dec 20 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
Queens Park Rangers
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Jan 4 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-0
- Jan 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Dec 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Leicester City (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.