Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · West Ham United vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 53%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United53%48%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Wolverhampton23%26%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 65% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Southampton (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-1
Wolverhampton
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 29 · v Stoke City (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · v Port Vale (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.