Championship (England) · Fri, Sep 11 · 19:00 · West Ham United vs Wrexham
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%23%0
OursMarket
Wrexham18%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 8 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Derby County (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · v Wolverhampton (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Southampton (A)4-1
Wrexham
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 8 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Swansea City (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at Millwall (A)3-0
- Aug 28 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Watford (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.