USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 23:00 · Westchester SC vs AV Alta FC
Likeliest: Westchester SC win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Westchester SC54%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
AV Alta FC23%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Westchester SC
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 27 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Richmond Kickers (H)5-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlotte Independence (A)4-5
- Sep 6 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)1-2
AV Alta FC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Forward Madison FC (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v One Knoxville SC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-5
- Aug 23 · v FC Naples (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Westchester SC | AV Alta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.