USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Westchester SC vs Forward Madison FC
Likeliest: Forward Madison FC win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Westchester SC31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Forward Madison FC41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Westchester SC
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v AV Alta FC (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Richmond Kickers (H)5-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlotte Independence (A)4-5
Forward Madison FC
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v AV Alta FC (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Westchester SC | Forward Madison FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.