USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Westchester SC vs Union Omaha SC
Likeliest: Union Omaha SC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Westchester SC23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Union Omaha SC51%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Westchester SC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Forward Madison FC (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · v AV Alta FC (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Richmond Kickers (H)5-2
Union Omaha SC
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-1
- Sep 20 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Westchester SC | Union Omaha SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.