A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 06:00 · Western Sydney Wanderers vs Auckland FC
Likeliest: Auckland FC win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Western Sydney Wanderers35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Auckland FC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Western Sydney Wanderers
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 16 · at Sydney FC (A)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Melbourne Victory (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · at Wellington Phoenix (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Sydney (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Melbourne City (A)0-3
Auckland FC
LossWin
- Oct 17 · v Melbourne City (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at Al-Ahli (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Western Sydney Wanderers | Auckland FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.