Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Wexford FC vs Longford Town
Likeliest: Wexford FC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wexford FC49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Longford Town24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wexford FC
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Kerry FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Finn Harps (H)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Treaty United FC (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Cork City (A)0-2
Longford Town
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 26 · v Cork City (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Treaty United FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kerry FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Wexford FC | Longford Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.