Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Wexford FC vs University College Dublin
Likeliest: Wexford FC win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wexford FC37%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
University College Dublin36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wexford FC
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at Bray Wanderers (A)2-2
- Oct 2 · v Longford Town (H)3-3
- Sep 25 · at Kerry FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Finn Harps (H)1-3
University College Dublin
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v Longford Town (H)1-1
- Oct 2 · at Treaty United FC (A)4-0
- Sep 25 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Cork City (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Athlone Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Wexford FC | University College Dublin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.