Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:30 · Widzew Łódź vs Górnik Zabrze
Likeliest: Górnik Zabrze win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Widzew Łódź35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Górnik Zabrze36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Widzew Łódź
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Wisła Kraków (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Piast Gliwice (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Legia Warszawa (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Radomiak Radom (H)0-0
Górnik Zabrze
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v Piast Gliwice (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Motor Lublin (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Widzew Łódź | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.