Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:30 · Widzew Łódź vs Wisła Kraków
Likeliest: Widzew Łódź win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Widzew Łódź41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Wisła Kraków32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Widzew Łódź
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Piast Gliwice (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Legia Warszawa (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Radomiak Radom (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-3
Wisła Kraków
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Legia Warszawa (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Widzew Łódź | Wisła Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.