Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 16:00 · Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
Likeliest: Wieczysta Kraków win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wieczysta Kraków38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Raków Częstochowa36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wieczysta Kraków
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Wisła Płock (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at Widzew Łódź (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)1-1
Raków Częstochowa
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v GKS Katowice (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Motor Lublin (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Lech Poznań (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Wieczysta Kraków | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.