Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:00 · Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisła Płock
Likeliest: Wieczysta Kraków win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wieczysta Kraków43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Wisła Płock30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wieczysta Kraków
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 18 · at Widzew Łódź (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Cracovia (A)2-3
Wisła Płock
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Cracovia (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)0-2
- Aug 23 · at GKS Katowice (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Wieczysta Kraków | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.