Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Wigan Athletic vs Blackpool
Likeliest: Wigan Athletic win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wigan Athletic38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Blackpool33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wigan Athletic
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Stockport County (H)0-4
- Sep 2 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-1
Blackpool
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Bromley (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Reading (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · at Barnsley (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Peterborough United (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Wigan Athletic | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.