League One (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Wigan Athletic vs Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 45%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 12% · 0–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wigan Athletic27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Mansfield Town45%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wigan Athletic
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Bromley (H)3-2
- Oct 27 · at Leicester City (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-2
- Oct 20 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Oct 17 · v Reading (H)1-0
Mansfield Town
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 31 · v Notts County (H)0-2
- Oct 24 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
- Oct 20 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)3-0
- Oct 15 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Bromley (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Wigan Athletic | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.