League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Wigan Athletic vs Reading
Likeliest: Reading win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wigan Athletic25%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Reading48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wigan Athletic
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Stevenage (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Blackpool (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Stockport County (H)0-4
Reading
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Chelsea U21 (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)5-1
- Oct 3 · v Bradford City (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Notts County (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Wigan Athletic | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.