Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · Willem II Tilburg vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Willem II Tilburg win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 33%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II Tilburg46%33%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Excelsior30%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 67% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 44% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II Tilburg
LossLossDraw
- Aug 30 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-4
Excelsior
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-0
- May 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-2
- May 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II Tilburg | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.