Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 19 · 19:00 · Willem II Tilburg vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II Tilburg36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II Tilburg
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 15 · at AFC Ajax (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Excelsior (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-4
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v AFC Ajax (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at ADO Den Haag (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II Tilburg | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.