Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:30 · Willem II Tilburg vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Willem II Tilburg win · 46%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II Tilburg46%18%+27
OursMarket
Draw26%20%+5
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen29%61%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 39% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 82% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 80% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 23% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II Tilburg
Loss
- Aug 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-4
NEC Nijmegen
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 11 · v Olympiacos FC (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v SC Telstar (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Willem II Tilburg | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 40% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.