Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 30 · 12:30 · Willem II Tilburg vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: Willem II Tilburg win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 24%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II Tilburg57%24%+33
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen21%53%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 47% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 76% | −33 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 31% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II Tilburg
LossLoss
- Aug 15 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-4
SC Heerenveen
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v FC Twente (H)1-0
- May 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Ajax (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Willem II Tilburg | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.