Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 14:45 · Willem II vs Almere City
Likeliest: Willem II win · 51%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II51%45%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Almere City26%30%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 68% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 60% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 6 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong PSV (H)1-0
- Mar 28 · v De Graafschap (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-0
- Mar 13 · at TOP Oss (A)3-1
Almere City
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 6 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · v TOP Oss (H)3-2
- Mar 20 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-2
- Mar 13 · at Vitesse (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.