Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 28 · 17:45 · Willem II vs De Graafschap
Likeliest: Willem II win · 47%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II47%43%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−2
OursMarket
De Graafschap32%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 70% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 56% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 22 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-0
- Mar 13 · at TOP Oss (A)3-1
- Mar 8 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-1
- Feb 27 · at FC Emmen (A)3-0
- Feb 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)0-1
De Graafschap
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 22 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Vitesse (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-3
- Feb 20 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Willem II | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.