Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 8 · 13:30 · Willem II vs FC Den Bosch
Likeliest: Willem II win · 52%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II52%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Den Bosch25%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 27 · at FC Emmen (A)3-0
- Feb 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · v Vitesse (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-1
FC Den Bosch
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Feb 27 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)2-2
- Feb 23 · at Jong AZ (A)2-2
- Feb 12 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Feb 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)0-2
- Jan 30 · v FC Emmen (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II | FC Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.