Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · Willem II vs Jong AZ
Likeliest: Willem II win · 63%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II63%59%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%21%−3
OursMarket
Jong AZ19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 68% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 79% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 12 · v Almere City (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong PSV (H)1-0
- Mar 28 · v De Graafschap (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-0
Jong AZ
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 13 · v Jong PSV (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at De Graafschap (A)0-5
- Apr 3 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-3
- Mar 16 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.