Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 3 · 18:00 · Willem II vs Jong PSV
Likeliest: Willem II win · 53%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II53%59%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Jong PSV25%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 74% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 28 · v De Graafschap (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-0
- Mar 13 · at TOP Oss (A)3-1
- Mar 8 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-1
- Feb 27 · at FC Emmen (A)3-0
Jong PSV
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 20 · v Vitesse (H)0-2
- Mar 16 · at FC Den Bosch (A)0-1
- Mar 13 · v FC Eindhoven (H)1-2
- Mar 6 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)2-0
- Feb 27 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Willem II | Jong PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.