Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 8 · 13:30 · Willem II vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: Willem II win · 48%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II48%42%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk30%32%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 57% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 2 · at Jong Ajax (A)1-2
- Jan 23 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Dec 18 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-5
RKC Waalwijk
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 30 · v TOP Oss (H)2-0
- Jan 26 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)2-2
- Jan 23 · at De Graafschap (A)4-2
- Jan 18 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Jan 15 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Willem II | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.