Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Feb 20 · 19:00 · Willem II vs Vitesse
Likeliest: Willem II win · 43%
A 33% away win. The market says 28%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Willem II43%47%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Vitesse33%28%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 63% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Willem II
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 16 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-1
- Feb 2 · at Jong Ajax (A)1-2
- Jan 23 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-0
Vitesse
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 14 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-2
- Feb 6 · at TOP Oss (A)2-1
- Feb 2 · v FC Eindhoven (H)1-1
- Jan 30 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-2
- Jan 26 · at ADO Den Haag (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Willem II | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.