Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 18:15 · Wisła Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
Likeliest: Wisła Kraków win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wisła Kraków56%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Raków Częstochowa21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wisła Kraków
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 16 · at Widzew Łódź (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Legia Warszawa (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)1-1
Raków Częstochowa
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 16 · at Wieczysta Kraków (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v GKS Katowice (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Motor Lublin (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Wisła Kraków | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.