National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Woking vs Harrogate Town
Likeliest: Woking win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Woking37%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Harrogate Town36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Woking
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · at Eastleigh (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-4
- Sep 26 · at Carlisle United (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Boston United (A)1-1
Harrogate Town
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
- Sep 29 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Eastleigh (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · v AFC Fylde (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Woking | Harrogate Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.