Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Tirol
Likeliest: Wolfsberger AC win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolfsberger AC38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
WSG Tirol36%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolfsberger AC
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · at SV Ried (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-3
- Sep 1 · v LASK (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
WSG Tirol
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v SV Ried (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v TSV Hartberg (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at Austria Wien (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Wolfsberger AC | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.