EFL Cup (England) · Fri, Aug 7 · 18:45 · Wolverhampton vs Port Vale
Likeliest: Wolverhampton win · 46%
A 28% away win. The market says 10%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton46%74%−29
OursMarket
Draw26%16%+10
OursMarket
Port Vale28%10%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 61% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 90% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 26% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 88% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Fulham (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- May 2 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
Port Vale
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- May 2 · v Lincoln City (H)0-2
- Apr 28 · at Stockport County (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at Cardiff City (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Wigan Athletic (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.