Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Wolverhampton vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Wolverhampton win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Portsmouth15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · at Burnley (A)2-1
- Oct 13 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Everton (A)0-1
Portsmouth
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.