Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:30 · Wolverhampton vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Wolverhampton win · 53%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton53%63%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+1
OursMarket
Stoke City25%15%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 54% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 37% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · v Port Vale (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
Stoke City
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 25 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.