Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Wolverhampton vs Watford
Likeliest: Wolverhampton win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton72%68%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−2
OursMarket
Watford10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · at Burnley (A)2-1
- Oct 13 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Everton (A)0-1
Watford
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at Cardiff City (A)1-5
- Oct 10 · v Burnley (H)0-4
- Sep 18 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.