Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 18 · 20:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 51%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers26%9%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+7
OursMarket
Arsenal51%74%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 43% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 26% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 91% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 10% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 15 · at Grimsby Town (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Chelsea (H)1-3
- Jan 31 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
Arsenal
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 15 · v Wigan Athletic (H)4-0
- Feb 12 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · v Chelsea (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Leeds United (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Arsenal form·Head-to-head record