Premier League (England) · Fri, Feb 27 · 20:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Wolverhampton Wanderers win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 23%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers41%23%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa36%51%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 54% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 49% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 77% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 32% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Feb 22 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- Feb 18 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · at Grimsby Town (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Chelsea (H)1-3
Aston Villa
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 21 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-3
- Feb 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Brentford (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Aston Villa form·Head-to-head record