FA Cup (England) · Fri, Mar 6 · 20:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 42%
A 35% home win. The market says 16%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers35%16%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Liverpool42%64%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 36% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 84% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 20% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 3 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
- Feb 27 · v Aston Villa (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- Feb 18 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · at Grimsby Town (A)1-0
Liverpool
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · v West Ham United (H)5-2
- Feb 25 · at Independiente Medellín (A)0-0
- Feb 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.