Premier League (England) · Mon, Dec 8 · 20:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Wolverhampton Wanderers win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 19%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers41%19%+21
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United35%57%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 43% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 81% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 25% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-2
- Nov 8 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 1 · at Fulham (A)0-3
Manchester United
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 4 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- Nov 24 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Nov 1 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record