Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 18 · 14:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 40%
A 35% home win. The market says 21%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers35%21%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle United40%54%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 46% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 79% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 28% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 10 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)6-1
- Jan 7 · at Everton (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 30 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
Newcastle United
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Jan 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Leeds United (H)4-3
- Jan 4 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at Burnley (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record