Premier League (England) · Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 40%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers35%29%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest40%42%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 41% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 30 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-2
- Nov 8 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 1 · at Fulham (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · v Chelsea (H)3-4
Nottingham Forest
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Nov 27 · v Malmö FF (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Nov 9 · v Leeds United (H)3-1
- Nov 6 · at Sturm Graz (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record